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Invest outlook

 

High deposit rates and the stability of the exchange rate allowed banks to accumulate on correspondent accounts record a few years worth - 30.8 billion hyven.

This writes "Kommersant-Ukraine".

According to the National Bank, as a significant amount of available resources in the system was still two and a half years ago, it says.

Then, July 15, 2010, was made absolute maximum balances on correspondent accounts - UAH 34.37 billion.

With official statistics imply that such a large amount banks could not obtain from the Bank. From the beginning, the regulator issued a five credit institutions to refinance only 153.5 million USD.

"The inflow of funds was secured hryvnia deposits" - said in the story.

In 2012, the population put on bank accounts in national currency USD 26 billion, of which USD 6.4 billion received in December.

Given the growth of foreign currency deposits and increasing balances of enterprises in banks late last year received a total of 31 billion.

At the same time in connection with the end of the year they were in no hurry with the issuance of new loans, as the loan portfolio decreased by 5.8 billion.

Due to the surplus arising, rates on the interbank market began to decline and 15 January reached 4.4%.

This has led to a decrease in interest rates on short deposits. Index UIRD in January fell by 1.11 percentage point (pp) - up to 18.62% per annum for three-month deposits. Six-month deposits fell by 0.65%, and 9-12 month - only 0.2-0.3 percentage points

Experts expect another wave of decline - by 2.3%, it says.

Reduction in deposit rates in the future will have to lower your cost of credit.

"If the National Bank will continue its policy of conventionally fixed rate and panic will, within six months as rates on deposits and on loans are reduced by 4-6 percentage points," - Chief Financial analyst expects the agency "Expert Rating" Vitaly Shapran.

"Expect cheaper loan products should be not less than one month. This is because banks need time to dilute their resources cheaper expensive balances. Believe the level of reduction of loan is appropriate to decline their deposit," - said the deputy Chairman of "National Credit Bank" Lyudmila Mishchuk.

It can be cheaper to buy a car loans, mortgages will remain available, experts say. There is unlikely to become cheaper high-yield loans (eg, fast cash loans).

Recall, December 12, head of the NBU Serhiy Arbuzov said that the National Bank allows lower rates on deposits in local currency to 15-17% in 2013.

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